STALE BOARD · JULY 10, 2026
No official play yet.
Waiting on confirmations.
NO OFFICIAL PLAY YET — waiting on operational checks (lineup unconfirmed: 431, starter unconfirmed: 14, roster status: 431, stale data: 431, calibration unavailable: 431).
Active streak
0
streak reset, building the next one
Pick record
5–2
every pick played · 3 days
Top pick win probability
72.6%
Luis Arraez · SF
2025 validation
74.7%
daily top pick · 182 days, walk-forward
THE BOARD
Every pick, ranked.
Recalibrated P(≥1 hit) for every projected starter today. The play policy takes the top two when both clear 66%; otherwise one pick, or none at all. Picks lock at first pitch; statuses and box lines update live.
| Player | Game | Win probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Luis Arraez#2 SF vs COL · vs Tanner Gordon projected | 9:15 PM CT | 72.6% |
| 2 |  | Bobby Witt Jr.#2 KC @ BAL · vs Brandon Young projected | 6:05 PM CT | 72.2% |
| 3 |  | Chase DeLauter#2 CLE @ MIA · vs Sandy Alcantara projected | 6:10 PM CT | 71.7% |
| 4 |  | Julio Rodríguez#2 SEA @ TB · vs Nick Martinez projected | 6:10 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 5 |  | Jeremy Peña#1 HOU @ TEX · vs Cal Quantrill projected | 7:05 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 6 |  | Michael Harris II#1 ATL @ STL · vs Kyle Leahy projected | 7:15 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 7 |  | Ozzie Albies#2 ATL @ STL · vs Kyle Leahy projected | 7:15 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 8 |  | Heliot Ramos#1 SF vs COL · vs Tanner Gordon projected | 9:15 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 9 |  | Matt Olson#3 ATL @ STL · vs Kyle Leahy projected | 7:15 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 10 |  | Otto Lopez#2 MIA vs CLE · vs Parker Messick projected | 6:10 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 11 |  | Gunnar Henderson#1 BAL vs KC · vs Luinder Avila projected | 6:05 PM CT | 67.8% |
| 12 |  | Yandy Díaz#1 TB vs SEA · vs Luis Castillo projected | 6:10 PM CT | 67.8% |
TRACK RECORD
Watch it calibrate.
The model's numbers are only worth what they predict. Every probability below is out-of-time: fit on the past, scored on what came next. Live results join the chart as they settle.
Predicted vs. actual
2025 walk-forward season, 41,117 picks in 12 buckets
View as table
| Predicted | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| 24.0% | 23.8% | 3,463 |
| 43.4% | 43.2% | 3,468 |
| 52.3% | 52.8% | 3,383 |
| 56.2% | 55.6% | 3,463 |
| 59.2% | 59.8% | 3,419 |
| 60.3% | 59.6% | 3,363 |
| 62.7% | 63.5% | 3,478 |
| 64.4% | 64.5% | 3,652 |
| 65.7% | 65.9% | 3,349 |
| 66.2% | 65.4% | 3,243 |
| 67.9% | 67.5% | 3,437 |
| 70.9% | 70.1% | 3,399 |
Daily top pick, 30-day rolling
Hit rate of the #1 board pick
View as table
| Date | 30-day hit rate |
|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | 20.0% |
| 2025-04-19 | 58.3% |
| 2025-05-03 | 73.3% |
| 2025-05-17 | 76.7% |
| 2025-05-31 | 76.7% |
| 2025-06-14 | 73.3% |
| 2025-06-28 | 80.0% |
| 2025-07-12 | 76.7% |
| 2025-07-30 | 66.7% |
| 2025-08-13 | 66.7% |
| 2025-08-27 | 86.7% |
| 2025-09-10 | 90.0% |
| 2025-09-24 | 80.0% |
THIS SEASON
The streak, day by day.
Every settled pick, in order. The line climbs one step per winning pick and drops to zero the moment one goes hitless: the same 5-for-7 record and 0-streak on the tiles above, drawn out over 4 settled days. The current run reset on a miss. The climb starts over.
View as table
| Date | Picks | Streak |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6 | ✓ Shohei Ohtani 72%; ✓ Luis Arraez 70% | 2 |
| Jul 7 | ✓ Shohei Ohtani 72%; ✓ Fernando Tatis Jr. 71% | 4 |
| Jul 8 | — Byron Buxton 72%; ✓ Otto Lopez 72% | 5 |
| Jul 9 | ✗ Gunnar Henderson 72%; ✗ Trea Turner 72% | 0 |
PICK LOG
Every day, on the record.
Picks are logged before first pitch and never edited. Outcomes settle the next morning when official data posts.
| Fri Jul 10 |  ···Luis Arraez 72.6% — pending ···Bobby Witt Jr. 72.2% — pending |
| Thu Jul 9 |  ✕Gunnar Henderson 72.2% — no hit ✕Trea Turner 72.2% — no hit |
| Wed Jul 8 |  —Byron Buxton 72.4% — did not play ✓Otto Lopez 72.4% — hit |
| Tue Jul 7 |  ✓Shohei Ohtani 72.0% — hit ✓Fernando Tatis Jr. 71.4% — hit |
| Mon Jul 6 | ✓Shohei Ohtani 72.1% — hit✓Luis Arraez 70.0% — hit |
METHOD
Built to be doubted.
Walk-forward, no leakage
Every feature is computed strictly from games before the prediction date. The model retrains every morning and never sees the day it predicts.
Ideas earn their way in
Model changes must beat the incumbent on three held-out seasons. Eight upgrades failed that gate and were rejected. The receipts are in the case study.
Externally checked
On matched player-days, the model's probabilities price hits at parity with professional sportsbook lines, built only from free public data.
Honest about the odds
A great top pick wins about 4 days in 5. Misses are part of the math. The streak comes from compounding good probabilities, not certainty.